Why do tiny wording differences matter so much?
Because the wording, not your interpretation, decides what counts as Yes. The market pays the rules, not your thesis.
Mechanics
Resolution criteria: where retail money goes to die
The rules text decides who gets paid, and the most expensive losses come from being right about the world but wrong about the wording.
event resolution criteriakalshi resolution rulespolymarket how does it resolvereading the fine print
The short version
Good criteria spell out four things: the exact outcome, the deadline, the source that calls it, and how edge cases like delays, revisions, and partial results get handled. If any of those are fuzzy, the market is fuzzy, and a sharp-looking price on a vague rule is a trap, not value.
Why it matters
You can nail the analysis and still lose because passed meant signed, not voted, or because the data source revised after the deadline. Reading resolution first is not pedantry; it is the difference between an edge and a coin flip you did not know you were taking.
Clean events look like this
- A bill passes both chambers by a specific date
- A product is publicly released to general users, not just announced
- A data series prints above a stated threshold from a named source
What to check before you click
Outcome definitionThe Yes condition must be measurable and specific, not implied or you-know-what-I-mean.
DeadlineNo close date, no clean resolution. Know exactly when uncertainty ends.
Source of truthAn official, public source kills disputes. A vague credible-reports clause invites them.
Edge casesDelays, revisions, and partial outcomes are where the surprises live. Find them first.
FAQ
Who actually resolves a market?
Ideally a named public source on a stated date. The cleaner that is, the safer the market.
Should beginners avoid complicated markets?
Yes. Start with events that have obvious, single-source resolution and graduate from there.