Resources
Guides & articles
Everything we’ve written about reading event markets — the mechanics, the comparisons, and the portfolio themes — in one place.
Learn
How to read event markets, turn prices into probabilities, and prove your read.
- Event Resolution Criteria: Read the Fine Print Before You Bet · Resolution rules decide who wins. How to read the fine print on Kalshi and Polymarket and avoid the wait-it-resolved-how loss.
- Forecasting Calibration: How to Know If Your Edge Is Real · Calibration and Brier scores, explained for event traders. How to tell skill from a hot streak and stop blowing up on overconfidence.
- Forecasting Journal Template for Prediction Market Traders · A simple journal template to track your reads, updates, and outcomes, the habit that turns scattered bets into a measurable edge.
- How Event Forecasting Works (How Prices Become Probabilities) · How event markets like Kalshi and Polymarket turn messy real-world questions into a single tradeable probability, and how to read that number like a sharp.
- How to Build a Paper Trading Portfolio for Prediction Markets · Prove your edge before you risk real size. A practical workflow for paper-trading Kalshi and Polymarket events and tracking calibration.
- How to Read Market Probabilities on Kalshi and Polymarket · A price is not a prediction. How to read implied probability, spreads, and no-vig fair value the way sharp event traders do.
- How to Trade a Portfolio of Events: Baskets and Correlation · A basket of event markets is leverage, not a hedge. How correlation, EV, and resolution risk really work when you trade a portfolio of Kalshi or Polymarket contracts.
Compare
How event markets stack up against polling, surveys, paper trading, and newsletters.
- Forecasting Platforms vs Newsletters: Narrative vs Track Record · Newsletters explain the narrative; forecasting platforms grade it. How to turn a sharp thesis into dated, resolvable, scoreable markets.
- Forecasting vs Polling: Why a Poll Lead Is Not a Win Probability · Polling measures opinion now; forecasting estimates the outcome. Why a 6-point poll lead is not a 90% chance, and how the market knows.
- Kalshi Alternatives for Learning Prediction Markets · The best alternative to Kalshi for learning is not another venue, it is a paper-first workflow that builds your read before you risk size.
- Kalshi (Real Money) vs Paper Trading: Which First? · Trading real money on Kalshi versus paper-trading first. When reps beat risk, and how to know you are ready to size up.
- Prediction Markets vs Surveys: What the Number Means · A market price and a survey result answer different questions. How to tell sentiment from a probability and stop confusing the two.
Themes
Curated baskets of live markets by topic — AI, Fed rates, elections, climate, and more.
- AI Forecasting Portfolio: Trade the AI Narrative on Events · A curated book of AI event markets, from model releases to chip policy to AI regulation, for traders who would rather price the hype than just post about it.
- Climate Policy Forecasting Portfolio · Emissions rules, energy permitting, climate finance. A curated book of policy event markets with hard deadlines and public resolution sources.
- Crypto Regulation Forecasting Portfolio · Stablecoin bills, ETF approvals, agency actions. A catalyst-heavy book of crypto policy event markets for traders who follow the regulators.
- Election Forecasting Portfolio: Markets, Not Vibes · Track election event markets, primaries, turnout, ballot access, and learn why a poll lead and a winning probability are not the same number.
- Fed Rates Forecasting Portfolio: Trade the Macro Calendar · Rate decisions, CPI, jobs. A curated macro event book for learning how data prints and Fed communication move implied probabilities.
- Macro Policy Forecasting Portfolio · Budget deadlines, central bank decisions, trade policy. A curated book of macro policy event markets with public sources and hard dates.
- Media and Entertainment Forecasting Portfolio · Box office thresholds, release dates, awards, streaming deals. A book of entertainment event markets with measurable, public outcomes.
- Sports Business Forecasting Portfolio (Not Game Picks) · League expansion, media-rights deals, venue approvals. A book of sports business event markets. The boardroom, not the box score.
- Technology Policy Forecasting Portfolio · AI rules, privacy bills, platform regulation, chip controls. A book of tech policy event markets that move on agencies, courts, and legislatures.