Do I need a fancy spreadsheet?
No. Question, probability, drivers, update, outcome. A notes app is enough.
Playbook
The forecasting journal that builds an edge
A journal turns a feed of numbers into a track record, what you believed, why, what changed, and whether you were actually right.
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The short version
For every market, log the question, your starting probability, the one or two reasons behind it, each update with the reason for the move, and a postmortem after it resolves. Five lines. Do it consistently and you will spot your patterns, the biases, the leaks, the spots where you reliably beat the line.
Why it matters
Memory is a liar. After an event resolves, your brain quietly rewrites what you always knew, and you learn nothing. A journal freezes the thesis in time so you can grade your process, not your hindsight, which is the only way the edge compounds.
Entries that pay off later
- Opening thesis on an AI release market, with your number and why
- An update note after a Fed speech moved the line
- A postmortem on a policy deadline you misread
The five fields
Initial thesisWrite your base case before news distorts it. This is the entry you will thank yourself for.
Evidence logTrack only the signals that actually changed your view, not every headline.
Probability updatesRecord the new number and the reason. Felt different is not a reason.
Outcome reviewAfter it settles, separate bad luck from bad process. Fix the process.
FAQ
How often should I update?
Only when real evidence changes your number. Updating on noise just trains you to chase.
Can the platform just track this for me?
It can structure it, but writing the reasoning yourself is where the learning actually happens.