Poly PortfolioA portfolio of events is one thesis spread across several related contracts. If those contracts share a driver, you are not diversified, you are leveraged: they win and lose together. Size a thesis basket like a single high-conviction bet, and read the resolution fine print on every leg.
Convert each leg's price into a probability, then ask the only question that matters first: what single event sinks all of them at once? If you can name it, the basket is a concentration play, not a hedge, no matter how many contracts sit inside it. Treat it as one bet, size it once, and read how every leg actually resolves before you buy.
A stock portfolio lowers risk because the holdings move on different forces. A thesis basket does the opposite on purpose. Every leg of a "Higher for Longer" basket keys off the Fed's rate path, so one dovish print can bleed all of them at the same time, in the same direction. People who file a basket under "diversified" get blindsided by drawdowns they thought were mathematically impossible.
No. You hold each leg separately and each one pays on its own; nothing requires all of them to hit. But if the legs share a driver they tend to resolve the same way, so the outcomes still cluster at the ends.
Only if the legs are genuinely uncorrelated. A single-thesis basket concentrates risk: it behaves like one leveraged position, not a hedge.
Like one high-conviction bet, not like a diversified book. The legs move together, so your real exposure is to the shared driver, not to several independent calls.