Is polling part of forecasting?
Yes, usually a major input, but never the whole thing.
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Forecasting vs polling
Polling measures who is ahead today; forecasting estimates who actually wins, and the gap between them is where people lose money.
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The short version
A poll is one input. A forecast takes the polls, adjusts for house effects and sampling error, layers in turnout and rules and time left, and outputs a probability. That is why a candidate up 6 in the average can sit at 54¢, the forecast already knows how often a lead that size evaporates.
Why it matters
The classic retail loss is reading a poll lead as a near-lock and backing the favorite at terrible odds. Understanding why a forecast discounts that lead, uncertainty, time, turnout, is the difference between paying up for a favorite and finding actual value.
Where they diverge
- A candidate leading the polls but not the market
- A turnout shift that moves the forecast, not the poll
- A debate that swings the line overnight
What forecasting adds
UncertaintyForecasts carry the error bars polls report but readers ignore.
TurnoutWho shows up reshapes outcomes that topline preference misses.
Time to goMore runway means more room for a lead to move.
Correlated errorPolls can all be wrong in the same direction. Forecasts price that in.
FAQ
Why does a polling leader lose so often?
Sampling error, turnout, late swings, and electoral rules all chip away at a raw lead.
Does this site publish polls?
No. It is about reading forecasts and event probabilities.