Does this take a political side?
No. It is a forecasting book; the only side is calibration.
Theme
Election forecasting portfolio
An election book built on dated, resolvable markets, not partisan takes and not poll-lead-equals-winner math.
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The short version
This theme collects markets on primaries, ballot access, turnout, debates, and election administration. It is built for learning how probabilities update on noisy signals, not for cheering a side. The recurring lesson: a candidate up 6 in the polls is not a 90% favorite, and the market usually knows that before the timeline does.
Why it matters
Elections generate endless signal and most of it is junk. Tracking dated markets forces disciplined updates and teaches the gap between sentiment, polling, and an actual outcome probability, the exact gap people lose money pretending does not exist.
What is in this portfolio
- Will a named candidate win a given primary?
- Will turnout beat the prior cycle?
- Will a scheduled debate actually happen?
What moves these
Polling, weightedPolls are an input, not the answer. House effects and sampling error get priced in.
Turnout assumptionsWho actually shows up swings outcomes more than topline preference.
Rules and accessBallot access, primary calendars, and administration quietly shape the odds.
Late movementDebates, news, and money tend to move short-dated markets fast.
FAQ
Why can a polling leader be an underdog?
Turnout, electoral rules, and sampling error can flip a topline lead into a coin flip.
Are these betting tips?
No. They are educational markets for learning how political probabilities move.